It’s ABC, but it’s also the result of Singh. NDP was neck and neck with Liberals when the Liberals were polling poorly, which could’ve been the NDP’s chance. If Singh still doesn’t get replaced after this election, I don’t think the NDP is going to fare well.
Something I’ve wondered is how the poll aggregators apply the vote % to regional breakdowns / seat estimates. Are they using the voting patterns from previous elections, or is there polling data broken down by seat?
So if voting patterns changed significantly without overall vote % changing much, the results could still be very very different, correct?